Too many of the public health experts appearing in the media have had little if any involvement in infectious disease outbreaks or control since being in training or after 2004 when the Health Protection Agency was formed in England. The unprecedented events of 2020 demonstrated quite how difficult it can be. by "Emerging Infectious Diseases"; Health, general Antimicrobial additives Research Microbial mutation Figure 2. Det er vanskeligt at spaa, især naar det gælder Fremtiden. Now, there is a saying, attributed to Niels Bohr but apparently an old Danish proverb, that it is difficult to predict, especially the future. Share this quote: Like Quote. Publisher: Kbhvn. As Niels Bohr, the Danish physicist, put it, “prediction is very difficult, especially about the future”. Critical Care Medicine: February 2015 - Volume 43 - Issue 2 - p 505–506. In May 1961 “The Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science” printed an instance of the saying using the word “hazardous” instead of “dangerous”. Samuel Goldwyn died in 1974, and his first linkage to the saying known to QI was printed in 1979. “Prediction Is V ery Difficult, Especially About the Fut ure” (Niels Boh r) Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/MCS.2013.2295692 Date of publica tion: 14 March 2014 (Internet Archive), 1969, How to Use the Computer in Business Planning by Henry F. Lande, Section: The Purpose of This Book, Quote Page ix, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey. It furthers the University's objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide, This PDF is available to Subscribers Only. Calls for an inquiry by Australia were met by China imposing trade tariffs on Australia within days. We make no apology for the amount devoted to coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in this issue. Horby P, Shen Lim W, Emberson J et al. "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." The words were credited to an unidentified Danish humorist: 6. (JSTOR), 1973 July 12, New Scientist, Exponential Living by Lord Bowden, (Book Review of “The Logarithmic Century”), Start Page 100, Quote Page 100, New Science Publications, London. predictions about future performance. Grooks Life Future Together. It is said that that Bohr used to quote this saying to … A refusal to fully participate in an open enquiry will only fuel speculation about the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which has undertaken world’s leading research on bat coronaviruses. This is despite mounting evidence that the virus had already spread to Europe before the seriousness of the situation was fully appreciated even in China itself. Also, in the same week, a senior executive of a company involved in COVID vaccine manufacturing was optimistic about a vaccine in September on BBC TV. Future Difficult Prediction. (Verified on paper), 2012, The Dictionary of Modern Proverbs, Compiled by Charles Clay Doyle, Wolfgang Mieder, and Fred R. Shapiro, Page 206, Yale University Press, New Haven. It’s dangerous to prophesy, particularly about the future. This ascription occurs frequently in modern times: 11, We must test all intellectually respectable lines of inquiry, while keeping in mind that, as the great Danish physicist Niels Bohr said, “it is very difficult to predict — especially the future.”, In January 1973 the saying was credited to Niels Bohr again in a journal published by the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM) by the mathematician Mark Kac of Rockefeller University: 12. Also, thus far too many trials from around the world have involved retrospective analysis with historical controls. This early citation 3 and several others remarked on the Danish language origin of the aphoristic joke: 4. --Nils Bohr, Nobel laureate in Physics This quote serves as a warning of the importance of testing a forecasting model out-of-sample. Also, some text was rewritten. These expressions have been attributed to a diverse collection of individuals, including Niels Bohr, Sam Goldwyn, Robert Storm Petersen, and Yogi Berra. Editorials . This is because, as Sam Goldwyn once said, it is difficult to make forecasts, especially about the future. Danish text is followed by an English rendering below. In 1979 a book reviewer in the London magazine “The Economist” attached the expression to the movie mogul Sam Goldwyn who was well-known for his humorously incongruous statements: 16. In conclusion, current evidence indicates that this comical proverb was first expressed in Danish, and the author remains unknown. Pictures are cropped. Other papers submitted have just included unspecified Chinese medicines in a highly uncontrolled manner. That said, whether you are making climate predictions, or predictions about what kind of car and highway you’ll be driving in 20 years, predictions about the future are indeed difficult. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future* Published on February 3, 2016 February 3, 2016 • 11 Likes • 3 Comments (Questia). Pictures accessed via Wikimedia Commons. The public rely on the media for their information and, at times, the quality and accuracy has been seriously substandard. --Nils Bohr, Nobel laureate in Physics This quote serves as a warning of the importance of testing a forecasting model out-of-sample. The first appearance in English located by QI was printed in a 1956 academic publication called the “Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Update History: On July 13, 2016 the 1948 citation for “Farvel Og Tak” was updated to indicate that it had been verified with scans. It is the most important public health issue for decades that public health can actually affect and we have not yet seen the full impact across the world. Fellow scientist Stanislaw M. Ulam who knew and communicated with Bohr credited him in 1976. Prognostic models are commonplace and seek to help patients and the surgical team estimate the risk of a specific event, for instance, the recurrence of disease or a complication of surgery. ADDENDUM: A kind person (mentioned in the acknowledgement) helped QI verify the 1948 citation. Who first said "It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future" (or one of its many variants)? 2015 Feb;43(2):505-6. doi: 10.1097/CCM.0000000000000795. In 1976 the mathematician Stanislaw M. Ulam writing in his book “Adventures of a Mathematician” credited the adage to Niels Bohr: 15. The metadata and the snippet text presented by Google Books are sometimes inaccurate. Here are five examples: Of course, a prediction is inherently about the future, and the modifiers “especially” and “particularly” emphasize the comical redundancy of the statement. It is hard to prophecy, particularly about the future. Mark Twain? 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In 1980 a newspaper in New York reprinted a different article from “The Economist” that credited Samuel Goldwyn: 17, Every prognosis here should be salted with all the familiar cautionary phrases, from Samuel Johnson’s snort (when warned in 1770 of Britain’s supposed impending ruin) that “there is a great deal of ruin in a country”, to Samuel Goldwyn’s “never prophesy, especially about the future”, In 1984 the popular syndicated gossip columnist Liz Smith ascribed the adage to Goldwyn: 18. It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. We live in a global world and the world needs a global body to help control pandemics. Niels Bohr? Englisch-Deutsch-Wörterbuch: Prediction is very difficult especially about the future Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. Author information: (1)Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Ziekenhuis Oost-Limburg, ZOL, Genk, Belgium. Year: 1952 (approximate) Link: here, … „Det er vanskeligt at spå, navnlig om fremtiden”? Comment in Obstet Gynecol. While (to quote Niels Bohr) “it is difficult to predict, especially the future” it might be useful (and fun) to pick out some recent developments which might be the forerunner of things to come. (Accessed Archive at ngfweb.no on October 19, 2013), 1963 December, Computers and Automation, Volume 12, Number 12, Diebold Researchers Undertake Study of EDP Developments, Quote Page 10, Column 1, Published by Berkeley Enterprises, Inc, Newtonville, Massachusetts. These dates will probably change as more citations are uncovered. In Focus. Prediction Is Very Difficult, Especially If It Is About the Future. Especially if it's about the future.I rarely make firm market forecasts. The media in the UK during May 2020 seemed to have adopted the attitude regarding everything that was being done and happening was wrong. (Verified on paper), 1971 December, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Volume 27, Number 10, On the Social Deployment of Science by Alan G. Mencher, Page 37, Educational Foundation for Nuclear Science, Inc. (Google Books full view), 1973 January, SIAM Review, Volume 15, Number 1, Chronicle, Start Page 243, Quote Page 256, (Synoptic description of talk entitled “Whither Stochastic Processes?” by Mark Kac of Rockefeller University), Published by Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics. For full access to this pdf, sign in to an existing account, or purchase an annual subscription. On 16 June 2020, the UK reported the first drug, dexamethasone, to improve mortality from a randomized control trial (RCT).3 It has taken the UK leading the world in recruitment to RCTs to show this benefit; something that would have been shown months earlier if China and the World Health Organization (WHO) had actively organized proper trials instead of ad hoc treatments of various drugs and various Chinese medicines, none of which seem to be properly described even in submitted papers. . Publisher: [København, Landsorganisationen i Danmark] Authors Anne L Donovan, Michael A Gropper. In the immortal words of the physicist Niels Bohr, Prediction is very difficult. This post was originally published here. The first written instance now known was dated 1948. By Tim Doggett | June 2, 2014. The monumental uplifts in digital volumes, shifts in customer requirements and broader economic impact would have been (and frankly still […] Would you please tell me who I should credit? Donald Trump’s decision to end the USA’s involvement does his own country a disservice as it weakens the response to a pandemic—a worldwide problem. Remdesivir for the treatment of Covid-19 — preliminary report, Effect of dexamethasone in hospitalized patients with COVID-19: preliminary report, Surveillance of COVID-19 at Long-Term Care Facilities in the EU/EEA, © The Author(s) 2020. Page: 185 (approximate) Randall Foskey, director of admissions marketing for Colonial Williamsburg, probably said it best last week at the legislative dinner sponsored by the Virginia Hospitality and Travel Association. Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. Those who have to make or inform the decisions are often in a no-win situation, as every country will be found to have made mistakes by the time the pandemic is over. This was again under-reported, although a number of media interviewers later in the week questioned how he could be so optimistic during interviews on their programmes. Prediction Is Very Difficult, Especially About the Future* Latronico, Nicola MD. Others think it came from the other side of the Atlantic. This citation was mentioned in the prominent reference “The Yale Book of Quotations”. Figures Figure 1. Also, thanks to Esben Mølgaard for his willingness to help. The above quote is also attributed to various humourists and the Danish poet Piet Hein: “det er svært at spå - især om fremtiden” . The main issue at hand is our ability to predict and prepare for the future. A principal purpose of this conference, as I am given to understand, is to try to look into the future of mathematical statistics. Never make forecasts, especially about the future. We must be clear that when it comes to atoms, language can be used only as in poetry. Nostradamus allegedly said, “Prediction is difficult, especially … Quote by Niels Bohr: “Prediction is very difficult, especially about ...”. We have seen serious issues in care homes in many countries.4 This has led to many deaths in these places amongst those most vulnerable in our society, but the difficulties in keeping infection out and under control in these places was always going to be a Herculean task once there was widespread transmission in the community. Update History: On January 5, 2021 instances of “Neils” were changed to “Niels”. “Never make forecasts, especially about the future,” our old friend Sam Goldwyn said. Recommend to friends. They clearly had not thought that he might have more information about vaccine progress than nearly everyone else in the country. Simon Wilson, Co-Head, Payments at Icon Solutions It has been said that prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future. Sitting Bull. Samuel Goldwyn? Beigel JH, Tomashek KM, Dodd LE et al. (NewsBank Access World News), 1998, Book title: To Light Such a Candle: Chapters in the History of Science and Technology, Author: Keith J. Laidler, Quote Page 3, Publisher: Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK. Prediction about the future gets much easier though if the law and legally binding documents poorly explained compel a particular vision. K. K. Steincke? København] : Arkitektens forlag, 1948- Comment on Obstet Gynecol. The Spring 1962 issue of the literary magazine “The Kenyon Review” printed an instance of the saying: 7, It is hard to prophecy, particularly about the future, a Danish witticism goes, and I shall refrain from such rashness…, Also in 1962 a Danish geophysical journal publishing in English printed a version of the mock adage: 8, But, to quote a Danish clown philosopher: “It is difficult to prophesy, especially about the future.”, In 1963 the magazine “Computers and Automation” based in Newtonville, Massachusetts printed yet another variant of the saying: 9, “Prediction is difficult, especially when dealing with the future”. Van Holsbeke C(1). Anonymous? While it sounds more like a " Yogi-ism ," the point made is interesting particularly as it relates to investing. Free Online Library: Antimicrobial drug resistance: "prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (1). (Publisher Fremad, Copenhagen, Denmark) (Verified with scans; thanks to a kind librarian at Åbo Akademis bibliotek), 2006, The Yale Book of Quotations by Fred R. Shapiro, Section Niels Bohr, Quote Page 92, Yale University Press, New Haven. 2018 Mar;131(3):603. like predicting the future, it seems that the true provenence is murky. The world needs an enquiry so as to learn as many lessons as possible. All rights reserved. Hence, citations must be verified on paper. (Questia), 2000, Asian Economic Trends and Their Security Implications by Charles Wolf Jr., Anil Bamezai, K. C. Yeh, and Benjamin Zycher, Chapter One, Quote Page 1, Publisher by Rand, Santa Monica, California. Quote: Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future” Niels Bohr (1885 – 1962) In keeping with the famous quote above, our outlook for stock markets in 2018 is unashamedly honest; it’s very difficult to predict. (Old Fulton), 1984 March 12, The Post (The Palm Beach Post), Actress Gears Up For Busy Schedule by Liz Smith (Syndicated Column), Quote Page B2, Column 1, Palm Beach, Florida. Dear Quote Investigator: There is a family of popular humorous sayings about the formidable task of successful prognostication. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future-Niels Bohr. Nobody digging into their Christmas turkey last year could have seen the black swan of … Thus, there is substantive evidence that Bohr employed the saying in 1962 or earlier, but the date remains uncertain. It is always very difficult to prophesy, particularly about the future, and extrapolation of the prices of common stock has ruined many a speculator. doi: 10.1097/CCM.0000000000000795. The aforementioned sentiment, which may have been uttered by Niels Bohr, is, thankfully, frequently ignored by medical investigators. A letter attributes the following comment to Niels Bohr: Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. Indeed, the phrasing changed over time and was highly variable: 5. As Niels Bohr said in one of his amusing remarks: “It is very hard to predict, especially the future.” But I think mathematics will greatly change its aspect. In the quest for getting the future right, we need to address two questions: do we have the right tools to understand the past, but also is having the right understanding of the past sufficient to prepare us adequately for the future? In September 1975 the mathematician Mark Kac employed the quip again. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. The two can hardly be seen as unconnected. [i.e. Quote Investigator: The Danish politician Karl Kristian Steincke authored a multi-volume autobiography, and the earliest evidence known to QI appeared in the fourth volume titled “Farvel Og Tak” (“Goodbye and Thanks”) which was released in 1948. "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's..." - Niels Bohr quotes from BrainyQuote.com - Niels Bohr quotes from BrainyQuote.com "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future* Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future* Crit Care Med. So, here is our forecast for 2020: It will continue to be tough to make predictions, especially about the future. "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." (JSTOR), 1961 September, The Journal of Medical Education, Volume 36, “Medical Education in Denmark” by H. H. Wandall, Start Page 1059, Quote Page 1069, Column 2, Association of American Medical Colleges. Another feature of the pandemic has been the number of public health professionals putting the public health perspective in the media. Er de faktorer, der bevirker prisfald, stærkere end de, der presser priserne op? Niels Bohr. The UK has been a world leader in the recruitment of patients to the gold-standard RCTs with >12 000 now recruited. Special thanks to Seamus Bradley, Daniel Gackle, and Janos Simon whose inquires motivated QI to formulate this question and perform this exploration. (Verified on paper), 1979 September 8, The Economist, Section: Books, Kahn and his banzai, (Book review of “World Economic Development 1979 and Beyond” and “The Japanese Challenge”, Start Page 120, Quote Page 121, Column 1, Published by Economist Newspaper Ltd., London. As a recent example of the undaunted, Gupta et al1 describe the development and validation of a predictive instrument designed to estimate the risk of adverse outcomes for children who have undergone cardiac surgery. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future-Niels Bohr Crit Care Med. This has not been helped by at least one UK paper wanting to talk to experts who agree with their chosen line and TV news presenters, using their own words to explain something in the absence of any facts. Others think it came from the other side of the Atlantic. Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future 1. "” — Niels Bohr Boldface added to excerpts by QI: 1. This meant that the results of a trial2 showing Remdesivir shortened serious illness by 4 days went virtually unreported despite this being highly relevant to anyone unfortunate to become seriously ill with COVID-19 infection. In 1998 the book “To Light Such a Candle: Chapters in the History of Science and Technology” by Keith J. Laidler suggested that Mark Twain used the saying: 21. Unsurprisingly, given COVID-19 being a new disease, there were many different views put forward, but too many were putting themselves forward as experts when it was far from their fields of expertise. Friends Who Liked This Quote. (JSTOR), 1962, Journal Name: Geofysiske Publikasjoner: Geophysica Norvegica, Volume 24, Special Issue: In memory of Vilhelm Bjerknes on the 100th Aniversary of His Birth, Article Title: “Vilhelm Bjerknes, March 14, 1862 – April 19, 1951”, Authors: Tor Bergeron, Olaf Devik, and Carl Ludvig Godske, Article Section: “Back in Oslo” by Carl Ludvig Godske, Start Page 21, Quote Page 25, Published by Det Norske Videnskaps-Akademi i Oslo, Universitetsforlaget, Oslo, Published in cooperation with the American Meteorological Society, Boston, Massachusetts. Relative to their celebrated American counterparts, UK forecasters have to produce forecasts for a very large number of individual races. “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future!” - Niels Bohr, Nobel laureate Physicist “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times” - Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities. If you can read Danish and have access to a comprehensive library perhaps you would be willing to help. He carefully noted the ascription to Bohr, but he also stated that the expression was “an old Danish proverb”: 14. Image Notes: The Crystal Ball circa 1902 by John William Waterhouse. The first is President Eisenhower’s truistic observation that “the future lies before us”; the second has been variously attributed to Mark Twain and Yogi Berra: “It is dangerous to make forecasts, especially about the future.”. The failure to organize proper RCTs of repurposed drugs for treating COVID-19 in the early months of 2020 is clearly a failing of both the Chinese authorities and the WHO. It is the most important public health issue for decades that public health can actually affect and we have not yet seen the full impact across the world. “Prediction Is V ery Difficult, Especially About the Fut ure” (Niels Boh r) Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/MCS.2013.2295692 Date of publica tion: 14 March 2014 Especially when coupled to a global vision of education grounded in constraining what the mind believes and … Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic. Perhaps he used the expression, but the evidence is very weak, and it is very unlikely he crafted it. QI would like to obtain scans from these periodicals in order to post an excerpt and provide additional context to readers. In mid-July, the world has surpassed past 250 000 daily cases. “It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra Read more quotes from Yogi Berra. (Questia), 1991 January 20, Richmond Times-Dispatch, Section: Area/State, “Tourist Visits to State Sites Up 0.1% IN ’90 – Blue Ridge Highlands Region has Biggest Gain, 6.1 Percent”, Author: Wilford Kale, Quote Page F-1, Richmond, Virginia. Cite This Article . RIS [TXT - 2 KB] Article Metrics. 2011 Aug;39(8):2005-7. doi: 10.1097/CCM.0b013e31821e85dc. But. The saying appeared in a section with this title: Og saa til Slut et Par parlamentariske Sprogblomster, And finally a couple of parliamentary howlers, The saying was spoken during the parliamentary year 1937-1938, and no attribution was specified. [author unknown; attributed to Karl Valentin, Mark Twain or Niels Bohr] Prognosen sind schwierig, besonders wenn sie die Zukunft betreffen. Keith Neal. The Historians Repeat One Another, Drawing on My Fine Command of Language, I Said Nothing, Dr. Mardy's Dictionary of Metaphorical Quotations. Here are two relevant matches with metadata and extracted text in Danish from GB and WorldCat. Nostradamus? Yogi Berra? When one week’s headlines were dominated by the childcare arrangements of a government advisor, a number of key stories were missed. Robert Storm Petersen? (Sorry about the number of dead links on this page---it's tedious to keep it up to date!) The saying was attributed Storm P (Robert Storm Petersen) in the following: Periodical Title: LO-Bladet Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future. Thanks also to Douglas G. Wilson for his analysis of the supposed 1918 citation. Metric Details. Many thanks to Egil Gersov of Åbo Akademis bibliotek for locating the saying in “Farvel Og Tak” and creating scans. Volumes: 5-6 Here are additional selected citations in chronological order. There is Den store efterspørgsel …, Title: Byplan ... quote from our Absurd Quotes, Adult Humour Quotes, Funny Quotes, Quotes About Life, Short Quotes, Truth Quotes, Wisdom Favorite Quotes categories. Where people get their information from has been plagued by false and misleading claims on social media often going viral. “In the words of Yogi Berra, ‘I never make predictions, especially about the future,'” Foskey said. (Great thanks to top lexicographical researcher Barry Popik for his pioneering work on this topic. "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." A quick internet search revealed a quote “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future” by Niels Bohr, a Danish physicist. We make no apology for the amount devoted to coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in this issue. Too many armchair critics do not appreciate the difficulties in the use of full personal protective equipment and infection control procedures whilst caring for these residents. To see what your friends thought of this quote, please sign up! Death and taxes may be certain, but preseason hurricane forecasts are quite the opposite. As Mark Twain said, it is difficult to make predictions, particularly about the future. Let us put our minds together and see what life we can make for our children. PMID: 29470331 [Indexed for MEDLINE] Publication Types: Letter; Comment; MeSH terms. 2 More information about Danish citations for this saying is presented in the addendum at the end of this article. Forecasting “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future.” Nils Bohr Objectives • Give the fundamental rules .Danish Proverb, In 1969 the book “How to Use the Computer in Business Planning” included an instance of the quip without attribution: 10, Let us not forget the old adage, “Forecasting is very difficult, especially about the future.”, In 1971 a version of the saying was attributed to the famous physicist Niels Bohr in the pages of the “Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists”. Niels Bohr, the Nobel laureate in Physics and father of the atomic model, is quoted as saying, “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future!” This quote serves as a warning of the importance of testing a forecasting model out-of-sample. In addition, thanks to Amory Lovins who told QI that some instances of “Niels” were misspelled as “Neils”.). “Prediction,” goes an old Danish proverb, “is hazardous, especially about the future.” For the Canadian economy the hazard is especially great. View Forecasting.ppt from STATISTIC 3003 at GLA University. Most medical fields have adopted the advantage of having specialists in small areas (such as cardiologist and neurosurgeons) whilst public health has had a one size fits all. … Something drastic may evolve, an entirely different point of view on the axiomatic method itself. Hurricane Prediction Is Very Difficult, Especially if It's About the Future. Niels Bohr died in 1962, and the first published linkage of his name to the expression known to QI appeared in 1971. Antimicrobial Drug Resistance: "Prediction Is Very Difficult, Especially about the Future"1. "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." (JSTOR), 1976, Adventures of a Mathematician by Stanislaw M. Ulam, Quote Page 286, Charles Scribner’s Sons, New York. “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future” Niels Bohr (1885 – 1962) In keeping with the famous quote above, our outlook for stock markets in 2018 is unashamedly honest; it’s very difficult … . (Verified on paper), 1956, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (General), “Proceedings of the Meeting”, [Speaker: Bradford Hill], Page 147, Volume 119, Number 2, Blackwell Publishing for the Royal Statistical Society. In September 1961 a version of the expression was published in “The Journal of Medical Education”, and the author of the article was identified as the Director of Institute for Experimental Research in Surgery at the University of Copenhagen, Denmark. Posted Nov 02, 2010 2017 Dec;130(6):1181-1182. (Now Published by Reed Business Information) (Google Books full view), 1975 September, Advances in Applied Probability, Volume 7, Supplement: Proceedings of the Conference on Directions for Mathematical Statistics, Some Reflections of a Mathematician on the Nature and the Role of Statistics by Mark Kac, Start Page 5, Quote Page 5, Published by Applied Probability Trust. In to an existing account, or purchase an annual subscription on Australia within days substantive! Pioneering work on this page -- -it 's tedious to keep it to... Unprecedented events of 2020 demonstrated quite how difficult it can be used only as in poetry importance of testing forecasting... Future. er de faktorer, der presser priserne op to make predictions, about! John William Waterhouse KM, Dodd LE et al this pdf, sign in an... Change as more citations are uncovered 1948- Link: here, … „ det er vanskeligt at spaa især. 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